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Dollar attempts bounce into Easter weekend

Published on April 17, 2025 at 07:55 AM

The dollar on Thursday lifted from a seven-month low against the yen as US-Japan trade talks avoided the issue of foreign exchange, while it made small gains on other currencies ahead of the long Easter break.

The dollar fell this month as the US threatened, imposed and then postponed massive tariffs, undermining confidence in US economic growth and stability.

The almost 8% gain for the Swiss franc since April 2 is the largest among G10 currencies and at 0.8167 per dollar it is close to testing resistance at a decade-high of 0.81.

The euro and yen are not far behind with gains of near 5% on the dollar in little more than two weeks, leaving both overdue for a bit of a pullback.

The euro eased slightly to $1.1362 in the Asia morning, though it remains within sight of a fourth straight weekly rise, even with the European Central Bank expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut later on Thursday.

The dollar touched a seven-month low of 141.62 yen early in Asia trade before bouncing back to 142.61 after Japan's economy minister Ryosei Akazawa said foreign exchange had not been discussed at the trade talks in Washington.

The yen had gained into the meetings in anticipation the countries could agree to strengthen the yen against the dollar.

However, with the long yen positioning the highest on records stretching back to 1986, gains could be unwound if no deal is struck.

The dollar index nudged up to 99.6 to trade more or less steady for the week.

Trade is likely to be lighter into Easter, with many markets closing on Good Friday and some remaining shut on Easter Monday.

Overnight US retail sales increased by the most in more than two years and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seemed in no hurry to move interest rates lower.

Yet the momentum for selling dollars has rolled on.

In the note, Citi forecasts the euro hitting highs around $1.20 in the next six to 12 months, before the dollar could start to make a comeback.

The dollar's slide has already broken the New Zealand dollar out of its recent range and is close to doing the same for the Australian dollar.

The kiwi was above 50-day and 200-day moving averages at $0.5912 on Thursday, though failed to advance much further despite a surprisingly hot inflation reading since price rises looked temporary and unlikely to derail rate cuts.

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