THE curtain comes down on the DP World Tour season this week, with Rory McIlroy starting as a hot favourite to command centre stage in Dubai.
McIlroy tops the Tour rankings, and is expected to finish the year as Europe’s leading money earner for the fourth time, by romping to a third victory in the DP World Tour Championship.
He has already reclaimed the world No 1 spot after winning his last start, the CJ Cup in South Carolina, so it is easy to see why he is a clear market leader.
If he brings his A game, McIlroy has the ability to spread-eagle the fifty-man field. But there are enough ifs and buts to make odds of just 3-1 look far too skinny.
The main concern is whether McIlroy has anything left in the tank, after playing out of his skin for most of the year while also leading the fight against the LIV rebels.
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He has run out of steam a few times in this event since his second win – back in 2015 – finishing ninth, 20th, fourth and sixth in his four subsequent starts..
This time last year McIlroy was leading by two shots with four holes to play.
But just over an hour later he was ripping his shirt off in frustration after playing those holes in three over par, while a late birdie blitz from Collin Morikawa carried him to a three shot victory.
McIlroy’s closing rounds in his last three appearances on this long, par 72 lay-out have been 73-73-74 – not the sort of figures that inspire confidence as such short odds. So we’ll look elsewhere for the value.
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Hotshot: Matt Fitzpatrick, 9-1.
The US Open champion simply loves this course. He won here for the second time a couple of years ago, and finished joint second behind Collin Morikawa last year.
He is a combined 29 under par for those eight rounds, and in addition to his first victory in 2016, he was tied fourth on his first visit the previous year.
It was a shock to see Fitz miss the cut at Valderrama last time out, when he was the defending champion. But that will just make him even more determined to end the year when he made his Major championship breakthrough on a high note.
At three times the odds on offer for McIlroy – and most bookmakers paying each way for the top six – he has to be the top pick.
Mid price: Kurt Kitayama, 33-1.
Kitayama finished just a shot behind McIlory when he won the CJ Cup, and the much-travelled American has quietly worked his way into the top fifty of the world rankings.
He has produced a few more eye-catching efforts in addition to that solo second in South Carolina, including another runner-up finish behind Xander Schauffele in the Scottish Open.
It is hard to believe Kitayama is still looking for a third DP World Tour win after becoming the fastest player ever to win twice – a feat he managed in just eleven starts.
He might find one of the top two too good again this week, but at these odds he is certainly worth backing.
Long shot: Shubhankar Sharma, 150-1.
Another player who is overdue a third success, after two wins in his rookie season in Europe earned the Indian star the rookie of the year honours in 2018.
He qualified for this event for the only other time that year, and will have to banish the memories of an horrendous final round 88 – although previous scores of 67-66 showed he has the game for Dubai.
Sharma went into the notebook as a potential winner this year when he finished in a share of second at the hotly-contested Abu Dhabi, but struggled to show the same form for much of the year.
But he was level with Tommy Fleetwood and Ryan Fox at the Nedbank Challenge with three holes to play last week, before a couple of bogeys dropped him to third. That was still a fine effort, and he could reward each way backers again.
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