THE bookies see this week’s Houston Open as a straight fight between the world’s best two golfers, with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy both rounding off their Masters build-up in Texas.
McIlroy’s preparation has gone a lot more smoothly than Scheffler’s, and on form he probably deserves to be regarded as the best player on the planet at the moment, ahead of the world No 1.
McIlroy was an impressive winner of the Players Championship, finding a way to get the job done despite failing to show his customary prowess off the tee at Sawgrass.
He ended up hitting less than fifty per cent of the fairways, but still came from four shots down after 54 holes to see off JJ Spaun in a play-off.
After also winning at Pebble Beach this year, you would expect him to be a warm favourite this week. But no, McIlroy is a 7-1 shot, with Scheffler a best priced 9-2. Go figure.
I know which player I’d rather back, and he doesn’t speak with a Texas accent! Scheffler has finished runner-up in Houston twice, but he arrived in much better form on both occasions.
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Houston Open betting tips
A word of warning about Rory too. This is the first time McIlroy has won twice before boarding the plane for Augusta, and it is asking a lot for him to complete the hat-trick.
He could be forgiven for letting his thoughts wander to what it would be like to finally pull on a green jacket. So let’s look for value elsewhere.
The 35-1 available for Min Woo Lee jumps out, even though he will be making his debut here.
He will be desperate to make amends after throwing away a share of the 36 hole lead at Sawgrass, and his power is a great match for Houston.
Aaron Rai has been supported here on several occasions. After a couple of seventh place finishes in Houston in the past, he again warrants each way support at 25-1.
And another European Ryder Cup hopeful, Thomas Detry, could be ready to contend again after a few weeks where his breakthrough victory in Phoenix seemed to be the only thing on his mind.
Detry finished in a five way tie for second behind Stephan Jaeger last year, He is an eye-catching 55-1 to go one better.
Jaeger has not shown much form lately so he is passed over. But another player who impressed at Sawgrass, Alex Smalley, is also an attractive 55-1 shot.
And the pick of the outsiders could be Nico Ecchavarria, at a best-priced 130-1. He had a share of the 54 hole lead at the Valspar last week, and a closing 74 is not enough for him to fall so low in the market.
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Richard Mansell showed the value of experience in the DP World Tour’s Asian events when he improved on two strong finishes in Singapore by winning there last week.
The English ace did us a favour at 60-1 in the process, and it is no wonder defending champion Keita Nakajima is a clear favourite to make it back-to-back triumphs in this week’s Indian Open.
Nakajima finished like a train to take second place behind Mansell in the Singapore Classic, shooting a bogey-free 65 in the final round. The combination of course knowledge and current form is enough for him to head the market.
His 16-1 quote is fair, but it is not quite good enough for me to go all in on the Japanese golfer. So I’m hoping Germany’s Marcel Siem could give us another 60-1 winner.
Siem won this event two years ago, and he also caught the eye in Singapore – matching Nakajima’s closing 65 to climb into a share of 14th place. At these odds, I think he represents the real value.
Romain Langasque finished fifth in this a year ago and the 33-1 shot has shown enough decent form recently to suggest he can go close again. And Jeff Winther, a shot behind Langasque last year, could also go well at 100-1.
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