San Antonio opens the doors to the last chance saloon this week, with the Texas Open offering one final chance to qualify for next week’s Masters.
More than 120 players in the 150-man field have yet to earn a place at Augusta. They will be encouraged by the fact that three of the last five winners earned last-gasp Masters spots.
World No 5 Ludvig Aberg is the highest ranked player inthe field, and is the bookies favourite at a best-priced 12-1.
The Aberg who won the Genesis three starts ago would be a good bet at that price.
But the one who missed the cut at the Players, and failed to make the top twenty at Bay Hill, is not one to back with any confidence.
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As with last week, when Min Woo Lee popped up at 35-1, it looks like the value might be lower down the market.
And this time the standout player seems to be deadly putter Denny McCarthy, who can be backed at 30-1.
McCarthy has been playing well without contending recently, claiming top twenty finishes at Bay Hill and the Players, at courses that did not really suit him.
You cannot say the same thing about San Antonio, especially after his final round charge last year, when he shot the lights out to force a play-off with Akshay Bhatia.
McCarthy birdied the final seven holes to chase down runaway leader Bhatia – they finished nine shots clear of Rory McIlroy in third – but it was Bhatia who produced the sudden death magic to take the spoils.
I can see McCarthy going one better this time, although Bhatia also deserves a place on the shortlist, especially at 25-1. Third place at the Players showed he is in a good place ahead of his title defence.
Corey Conners will also be a popular choice after two previous victories in this event, and 16-1 is not to be sniffed at. But I prefer to side with Patrick Cantlay at a couple of points longer.
A couple of fifth place finishes in his last five starts – and decent efforts in the other three – suggest Cantlay may be ready to recapture the form that took him to the world No 3 spot a couple of years ago.
Keith Mitchell is another player who looked to be heading in the right direction again with a top twenty in Houston last week. You canget 50-1 if you shop around.
Justin Rose is either really good at the moment – as he was when finishing third at Pebble Beach and tied eighth at Bay Hill – or simply awful, as shown by three missed cuts either side of those sparkling efforts.
At 80-1 he is worth a small interest, if only on the grounds that he is due another good one.
And the 125-1 on offer for Sami Valimaki is tempting after his fourth place finish in Houston – a shot ahead of Rory and only two behind Min Woo. Rounds of 64-62 at the weekend will have done wonders for the Flying Finn’s confidence.
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With the DP World Tour taking a two week break, it is all about Texas this week – although anyone who backed recent tips Richard Mansell and Min Woo Lee might be in the market for an early dabble in the Masters market.
You could do worse than side with Russell Henley, who is an eye-catching 50-1 in the ante-post list.
Henley has quietly risen to world No 7, he was an impressive winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and he showed a liking for Augusta when he was tied fourth two years ago. So he ticks plenty of boxes.
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