With two years to the next presidential election, mixed reactions have trailed the gale of defections by high-profile politicians from the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, into the All Progressives Congress, APC.
This comes as it was hinted that the coalition spearheaded by former PDP’s presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar may not succeed against the President Bola Tinubu-led APC due to moves by some Fulani interests to escalate the Fulani war that has birthed itself in Nigeria.
Recently, Atiku, his counterpart from the Labour Party Peter Obi, Babachir Lawal, former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai, announced the formation of the coalition under the Social Democratic Party. Since the announcement, no political bigwig has joined the party in their push to wrest power from Tinubu in 2027.
This is as the PDP and Atiku’s camp lost two major stakeholders from the South-South, Ifeanyi Okowa and Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State.
Okowa, who was Atiku’s presidential running mate in the 2023 election, had dumped the PDP for the APC alongside Oborevwori at a stakeholders’ meeting in Asaba, Delta State.
DAILY POST observed that Oborevwori’s defection now puts the APC in the lead in the Nigerian Delta region, Delta, Edo, and Cross River states are APC, while the governors of Akwa Ibom and Rivers states have backed President Tinubu, leaving only Bayelsa State with the PDP.
In the Southwest, the APC may likely retain votes from the region because Tinubu hails from the area.
For the North, there have been agitations over the region’s political leaning ahead of the 2027 presidential election, with former presidential aide Hakeem Baba-Ahmed saying the North will decide its political direction in the next six months because the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari made the region wiser.
Baba-Ahmed said, “In the next six months, the North will decide where it stands. If the rest of the country wants to join us, fine. If not, we will go our own way.”;
While Baba-Ahmed, a former spokesman of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), El-Rufai has been trying to galvanize the North to tilt their votes towards the opposition coalition with his visit to the Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi, and former presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, Rabiu Kwankwaso amid talks with other prominent politicians from the region.
Why the coalition many not succeed
Commenting on the issue, the Director General of the Heritage Centre, a think tank focused on research into economics, politics, and opinions, Katchi Ononuju, described the opposition coalition as a “menagerie”; that can’t succeed against the APC-led Tinubu administration in 2027.
Speaking with DAILY POST, Ononuju said states’ governors are rushing to the APC not because the party’s policies are good, but because “the Fulani war across the Sahel has birthed itself in Nigeria.”;
According to the former PDP chieftain: “A political coalition would be a menagerie of our diversity, but that is where we are. You need to understand why governors in the South are rushing into the APC gang even though Tinubu has not been very good at assuring an inclusive platform for his APC party. We have something going on which is bigger—security—that security issue is the Fulani war across the Sahel, it has birthed itself in Nigeria, and we are not very ready on how to deal with it.
“That is the main reason why the North is divided, and it’s all a fight over land. Unfortunately, Tinubu has not yet gotten a proper policy—and we all know how this was targeted in places like Burkina Faso, Mali, Central African Republic, Niger Republic, and it’s now in Nigeria—we don’t need to pretend it doesn’t exist; it’s there. So it’s part of the problem.”;
“When Buhari ruled and tried to use nepotism as a policy to do most things he did to the ethnic intentions of the Fulani, now that Tinubu has been given power, it seems like nepotism, which is a carryover of what he learned from Buhari, is not acceptable to the Fulanis. Nigeria is at a crossroads, that’s why you see governors from all walks of life and ethnicities coming to Tinubu—not that his policies have been the fantastic ones, no; most people are reacting against circular colonialism.”;
Nigerians will never find PDP appealing, South will prefer Tinubu rules forever than another Fulani
Ononuju also disclosed that the PDP may have lost its bearing because Nigerians may never find the party appealing if it refuses to respect the issue of zoning.
He noted that the Fulanis refused to allow for the inclusion of other people after former President Muhammadu Buhari, adding that “nobody will accept settlers’ colonialism”; in Nigeria.
Ononuju said, “PDP will never appeal to Nigerians if the Fulani politicians refuse to respect zoning; that is why Peter Obi left, that’s why Kwankwaso left. So, if you’re not going to allow inclusion, if you’re going to follow the fraud perpetrated by soldiers, it’s not going to work that way. Nigeria can only be built on an equitable platform of inclusion where the respect for Nigeria’s diversity is carried along.
“If that doesn’t work, I don’t see anything that will cause it. That’s why they are running into Tinubu, into the APC. Not because they love the APC, no; the alternative is not good. We must come together as one country to be able to save this security threat we have, which is the Fulani war across the Sahel that has now birthed in Nigeria, and we as a country don’t have a forward-looking national policy to attack the insurgency before us.”;
“So, you have to understand that since the British left, the people who have stayed behind and tried to colonize us are the Fulanis. They are not willing to share power with the rest of the people. You called Atiku now, a Fulani man after the other Fulani—Buhari, where are the other people? Where are the diversities of the country? This is where the problem is; this is the reason the PDP is crippled.”;
The Fulani war is also a push by Fulani politicians that they hold power, and what they were able to accept from Buhari for eight years, they are not willing to accept from Tinubu; not to say Tinubu has done well, no; but nepotism should be condemned in any form.
“Now, you need to understand that there is a war on, and we are not going to pretend that everything is okay. That is why you are seeing most of those governors in the South—in Akwa Ibom coming to Tinubu’s party; in Anambra likely to come to Tinubu’s party; in Rivers likely to come to Tinubu’s party; the same thing in Delta State. It’s a historical shift. But what is driving the shift?”;
“If the Fulanis are refusing to share power, insisting that it must be them, then the rest of the South would rather Tinubu rules forever than let it happen. This is where we are, so leave the coalition talk, coalition for who? We are not going to allow the perpetration of settler colonialism, it’s not going to work.”;
“I may not like Tinubu’s policies, but I would support him instead of having the country run into another Fulani man’s hands. So, the idea of us having nation-building means that you must open yourself to inclusion. What killed the PDP? The Fulani politicians refused the inclusion of others after eight years of Buhari. That was why me and Doyin Okupe started the youth movement and we got Peter Obi to head it.”;
“You need to ask yourself why all of them are suddenly converging in the APC—not that the economic policies are proper, or the socioeconomic policies are welcomed by everybody, but it’s better than us succumbing to the arrangement by Fulani politicians to organize Nigeria into a settler colonial entity. That will not be acceptable by anybody.”;
“The Fulani politicians are trying to enlarge their success over the Hausa states to the rest of the country. I don’t think that would be acceptable to anybody, that’s where we are right now, and what Nigerians are struggling with. We seek a country that is inclusive of everybody and not a country to be dominated by one ethnicity.”;
Defection part of democratic dynamics
On his part, former Director General of the Voice of Nigeria (VON) and a founding member of the APC, Osita Okechukwu, described the spate of defections as part of democratic dynamics.
He insisted that the ruling party has positioned itself to the extent that politicians are dumping their parties to join.
Okechukwu said: “There are defections from APC into whatever, and there are defections into APC. So, it’s part of the dynamics of the democratic system by giving inalienable rights to associate with wherever they want to belong. So, I don’t see anything strange about it. We have two years left, and we don’t know how many people will leave APC for the coalition and how many people will come back to APC.”;
“It’s an ongoing event, and the consequences of what is happening to the PDP post-2023 presidential primary is because they deliberately breached the rotation convention and PDP’s constitution, section 7. That breach led to the crisis in PDP. Some of us warned them that you don’t breach the zoning convention because this was crafted by Nigerian patriots since 1999 for the peace, harmony, and corporate existence of the country.”;
“When the Presidency goes to the South for eight years, it should go to the North too. Yes, it’s not written in the constitution of the country, but it’s a convention that has the weight of its own. What is happening to PDP is much to be expected. They breached the rotation convention, so when you create such a material condition for crisis, what you will inherit is whirlwind.”;
“It’s not a surprise with what’s going on in the PDP. The truth of the matter is that Nigeria is a multi-party state, and there will continue to be coalitions and mergers because what makes somebody dissatisfied in his group where he belongs may be different. So, I don’t see any harm; it is a democratic norm.”;
“If I’m the leader of the APC, what I will be fighting for is to strengthen members and get them aligned with our principles as a progressive party. We have seen that happen before. In Enugu, we started small in the defunct CPC. It was not the stronghold of the APC, and some big people joined us. When they joined us, they didn’t come with the people with them, so we didn’t benefit much from their joining us. It did not increase our vote strength. Let the party be in sync with the people and not who comes and who goes.”;
“Those who volunteered to join the APC, I would encourage them and encourage the progressive policy of the APC. So, it’s not the issue of who goes there, what is important is strengthening the brand for better perception.”;
“Luckily, Mr. President has increased the allocation he gave the state governors, which is the highest since we returned to the fourth Republic. Also, he has created platforms for growth by trying to rein in critical infrastructure, the Livestock Ministry, Development Commission of the Northwest, Northeast, North Central, Southwest, South-South, and Southeast. What is he doing? He is driving development to the grassroots of those in the local communities.”;
“And don’t forget also that he redesigned financial autonomy for the local councils, which means that power is transferred to the constituents of every ward and local council. The people should hold firm this golden opportunity because the era of the governor telling the Chairman and councillors that he is taking all the money and giving them pittance is gone.”;
“What Mr President has achieved is that it’s left for the people to ask their councillors and Chairman of their councils, ‘What are you doing with our money?’ You now know that the governor is not in charge of the money that is coming to you. Mr. President has made it possible that you are now in charge of our money, so where is it? That question is what we should encourage the people to ask our councillors and chairmen of local councils.”;
“When we have development commissions, the assumption is that Mr. President expects them to prioritize the needs of their geo-political zones and push for development.”;
“Accordingly, our great party, APC, has what will attract people to come in, but that does not mean that some people will not leave. Just like I told you about the financial autonomy for local councils, these are major milestones President Tinubu has done.”;
