SCIENTISTS have warned that yellow fever (YF), a deadly disease spread by mosquitoes, could cause a global pandemic.
They said spread of the that carries the hemorrhagic disease is more likely due to urban growth and increased travel.
is caused by the YF virus (YFV) and typically begins with symptoms like , chills, muscle aches, and .
In severe cases, the virus can lead to internal bleeding, , and (yellowing of the skin and eyes), which gives the disease its name.
It can also cause multiple organ failure, including the kidneys and heart, and can be fatal without proper treatment.
It is believed to infect around 200,000 people each year and to kill 30,000 of them.
It's mostly spread by the , which thrives in cities.
Unlike other mosquito-borne diseases, YFV spreads easily between humans.
This is because infected people carry a high amount of the virus in their blood, which mosquitoes can pick up and pass on to others.
Historically, yellow fever has been endemic in parts of Africa and south and central America – but vaccines and mosquito control helped control it.
However, the disease is resurfacing in Africa, with inadequate vaccination and poor mosquito control to blame, a new study has suggested.
Writing in npj Viruses, an international group of scientists warned that while yellow fever has not yet spread to the Asia-Pacific region – a vast area that includes countries like China, India, Japan, Australia, and Southeast Asia – the risk is higher than ever.
This concern was first raised by epidemiologist H.R. Carter in 1923, when he warned that yellow fever could spread to the Asia-Pacific region, which has large, vulnerable populations.
“The concern that YFV will spread to the Asia Pacific region that Carter raised 100 years ago in his treatise on the subject remains equally pressing today,” the study's authors said.
“Indeed, we would argue that the likelihood of such a catastrophe could be even higher now than it was in Carter’s time.”
This is partly because global travel increases the risk.
In 2019, over four billion people flew, many between areas where YFV is common and places where mosquitoes could spread it.
“If yellow fever reaches a new area, it could spread fast,” the authors warned.
‘The Covid-19 pandemic pale by comparison'
The research, published on April 24, emphasises that a yellow fever pandemic today could be far worse than previous outbreaks.
“A YF pandemic in today’s world would cause a devastating public health crisis that, because of the much higher lethality, would make the Covid-19 pandemic pale by comparison,” the paper states.
The , which gives people lifelong immunity is available but in short supply.
The authors call for better distribution and mosquito control to prevent a potential outbreak.
“We need to act now,” they concluded.
