Ukraine truce won’t end Putin’s dream of new Soviet Union – Nato must act before it’s too late, ex-UK defence sec warns

NATO must splash more cash and hang permanent threats over Russia to stop Vladimir Putin grabbing land, a former UK defence secretary has warned.

Even as a ceasefire seems closer than ever, Sir Michael Fallon warned it won't end the Russian tyrant's Soviet revival fantasy – so Nato must make it impossible.

He told Flying Eze that only by “strengthening Nato's military and political will” can western democracies stop Putin for good.

Trump has made it clear since taking power he will not protect Ukraine or fellow Nato members without them paying up.

Just this week he refused a plea from Volodymyr Zelensky for more Patriot missile defence launchers, despite their relationship warming after the White House clash.

In light of Trump's tough handling, Fallon – defence secretary from 2014 to 2017 – outlined a plan he insists Nato must execute.

First, he warned it must introduce a new minimum defence spending requirement for members.

Fallon said: “Ten years after their commitments at the Nato summit in Wales, one-third of the Alliance still doesn’t spend over two per cent of GDP on defence.

“Three per cent should be the new minimum target.”

Keir Starmer committed last month to upping the UK's defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027.

Then, Fallon insisted, leaders must ensure the cash is streamed into the right places.

He said we specifically need more equipment, and to push “investment in large-scale capabilities”.

European nations must stand on their own two feet, he said, and stop relying on the US for security.

This means developing our own “surveillance aircraft, missile defence, satellite coverage, heavy lift and in-flight refuelling”; capabilities.

And the alliance must also remember its “responsibility for its borders and the sovereign territory of its members”.

Fallon said: “Russia broke the previous Budapest and Minsk agreements, so any new peace agreement must therefore be secured by firm guarantees that it will be respected.”

Assuming guarantees are laid, the continent must then maintain a constant state of alert, ready to pounce on any Russian peace violation, according to the former minister.

He said: “Europe must be ready to deter future breaches by committing to the principle of ‘snap back' to the current sanctions and asset freezes.”

Fallon warned that Russia has grown wise to western sanctions and strategies – and has learned how to wriggle around them.

He said: “Russia has military strength in numbers and has adapted its industrial economy to mitigate the worst of sanctions.

“It has learnt lessons from the last three years, continually adapting its tactics and equipment.”

This means that even if there is a settlement in Ukraine, Russia “will remain a continuing threat to its former satellites and other countries near its borders”, he said.

But Europe's collective economy is 10 times bigger than Russia's so – if we stand together – Putin can be stopped, Fallon said.

The Alliance has to strengthen its military and political will

Sir Michael Fallon, former UK defence secretary

The military expert also sketched out the best and worst case scenarios for eastern Europe in the medium term.

He said: “The best case is a rock-solid guarantee that any peace agreement in Ukraine will be properly respected and underpinned by a better-resourced Nato, including continued US involvement.

“The worst case is a temporary agreement that falls apart under further Russian aggression, with conflict spreading into other territories in the region.”

EUROPE GOES IT ALONE

There is a lack of confidence in Europe that it could defend itself from Russia without the US, if Putin were to invade.

But the figures suggest we have a fighting chance.

America has a whopping 1.3 million active personnel across its three branches – counting for about one third of the alliance's total troop count.

But it is Europe who has more soldiers, with some 2.2 million troops in the European and Canadian arm of the group.

Meanwhile, Russia is aiming to have 2.4 million active personnel in its armed forces this year.

America has 100,000 troops in Europe as part of Nato and if the US were to withdraw the alliance would suddenly be caught short.

European nations have been reluctant to increase their military spending and would struggle to quickly find another 100,000 fighting troops.

And a new study said Europe could need 300,000 troops, 1,400 new tanks, and to double its spending over the next five years for security without the US.

Putin has thrown his troops into the meatgrinder in Ukraine, willing to take huge casualties for inches of land.

But Ukraine has also taken huge losses and any European force without America would need a massive army.

That's because Nato would also miss the massive amount of hardware America brings to the table.

For example, America has some 11 active aircraft carriers and another 300 combat vessels to accompany the flagships.

European nations have seven aircraft carriers.

France has one aircraft carrier, Italy has two, Spain has one, Turkey has one, and the UK has two.

However, Russia is even worse off, with no working aircraft carriers of its own.