Exactly how your waist size could predict your risk of killer cancer – where does your risk lie?

THE size of a man's waist may be a better indicator of his likelihood of developing cancer than body mass index (BMI), a new study has revealed.

For years, NHS doctors have used BMI to assess obesity and its link to cancer risk.

But now, Swedish scientists believe that measuring waist circumference is a more accurate way to assess cancer risk in men.

This isn’t the first time waist size has been tied to higher health risks.

A Oxford University study from 2022 found every extra inch on the waistline raises the risk of heart failure by 11 per cent.

In the latest study, experts from Lund University in Malmo analysed health records from 339,190 people between 1981 and 2019.

They followed participants for an average of 14 years, during which 18,185 developed obesity-related cancers, including those of the oesophagus, bowel, liver, pancreas, breast, and gallbladder.

Men with an extra 11cm on their waistlines by the end of the study increased their risk of developing cancer by 25 per cent.

By comparison, an increase in BMI of 3.7 – for example, rising from 24 to 27 – was associated with a 19 per cent higher cancer risk.

For women, the link between waist size and BMI was less strong.

However, both a 12cm increase in waist circumference and a 4.3 increase in BMI – moving from 24 to 28 – were associated with a 13 per cent higher risk of cancer.

The research will be presented at this year’s European Congress on Obesity in Malaga, Spain, in May, and published in The Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

The authors explained that waist circumference is a better measure because BMI “does not provide information on fat distribution.”

They explained that stomach fat builds up around the organs, making disease more likely.

Two people with the same BMI could have different cancer risks depending on where their fat is stored.

Waist size is a better predictor for men because they tend to carry fat in their stomach, while women are more likely to have fat spread across their body, they added.

Earlier this month, the NHS watchdog recommended that overweight patients be weighed annually to help doctors monitor their health.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) is urging closer tracking of waistlines, advising that those with long-term illnesses have their BMI recorded at least once a year.

However, some experts argue that BMI leads to overdiagnosis of obesity and are calling for a “radical overhaul” in how it's assessed and treated.

They propose a new approach that moves beyond BMI, incorporating waist circumference, waist-to-hip and waist-to-height ratios, and direct body fat measurements for a more accurate assessment.

This suggests that many of the 17.6 million Britons classified as obese under the decades-old BMI system may have been wrongly diagnosed.